How Probily works
Everything you need to know about prediction markets and trading on Probily.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each market is a yes-or-no question like "Will Bitcoin reach $200K by end of 2026?" You buy YES if you think it will happen, or NO if you think it won't.
How pricing works
Prices range from 1c to 99c. A YES share at 70c means the market thinks there's a ~70% chance the event happens. If you buy YES at 70c and the event happens, your share is worth $1 — you profit 30c per share. If it doesn't happen, your share is worth $0.
How to make money
Buy low, sell high — or hold until resolution. If you buy YES at 30c and the probability rises to 60c, you can sell for a profit without waiting. Or hold until the market resolves — if the outcome is YES, each share pays $1.
Selling shares
You can sell your shares anytime at the current market price. Go to any market page, click the Sell tab, enter how many shares to sell, and receive the current price per share back to your balance instantly.
Limit orders
Don't want to buy at the current price? Set a limit order. Choose your target price, and your order executes automatically when the market reaches that level. Manage all your limit orders from the Orders page.
Price alerts
Set price alerts to get notified when a market's probability moves to a level you care about. Great for timing your entries and exits without watching markets all day.
Badges and achievements
Earn badges as you trade. First Trade, Active Trader, Power Trader, High Roller, and more. Your badges are displayed on your profile for others to see.
Leaderboard
Compete with other traders on the leaderboard. Rankings are based on trading volume, number of trades, and profit. Click any trader to view their public profile.
$10 welcome bonus for new accounts